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Friday, September 25, 2026 · updated 7:55 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASLEAN BULL
55%

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Thursday was the chop day: five crosses of the 7,759 pivot in both directions and no acceptance either side, closing 7,765.25 right on the 7,767 settle. Overnight picked a side: from 7,747.75 at 8:35 PM, MES ground up through Thursday's 7,783.50 high and tagged 7,800.75 at 7:15 AM - the overnight already broke the prior day's high and is pressing the 7,800 round. The driver mix flipped too: Thursday evening's pressure (10-year at 19-year highs, oil spiking) gave way to dip-buying through Asia and Europe. Posture: lean bull 55% but entry is everything - price sits at the round number and the top of the overnight move with August Durable Goods at 8:30, so chasing here is the bad trade both ways. The day's pivot is 7,800.75 (ON high + round): hold above after the data and 7,826.50 (Wednesday's high) is the magnet; fail there and the stairs down are 7,783.50 (PDH) - 7,767 (settle) - 7,747.75 (ON low). Buy-side pools: 7,800.75, 7,826.50, 7,847.25-7,848.50. Sell-side: 7,783.50, 7,767, 7,747.75, 7,725.25, 7,699. Decider: Durable Goods 8:30 (August, ~-0.3% expected). Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only.

Liquidity map

MES1! ~7,795 at 7:55 AM, +28 vs Thursday's 7,767 settle, after a chop day that pinned 7,759 five times. Overnight range 7,747.75-7,800.75 - took out Thursday's 7,783.50 high and tagged the 7,800 round. All levels MES1! (December).

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES (Dec) ~7,795 pressing the round: Thursday high 7,783.50, low 7,725.25, settle ~7,767 (chop, five crosses of 7,759, closed near settle). Overnight: high 7,800.75 (7:15 AM), low 7,747.75 (8:35 PM). Week so far: Monday's 89-pt trend day, Tuesday's inside digestion, Wednesday's breakdown, Thursday's pivot chop - overnight is the first push back above a prior day high since Wednesday's break.
The fuel: bond selloff vs dip-buyers - the 10-year at 19-year highs pressured futures Thursday evening, then Asia and Europe bought it back. August Durable Goods at 8:30 decides which side owns the open.
Buy-side pools: 7,800.75 (ON high + round) → 7,826.50 (Wed high) → 7,847.25-7,848.50 (5-day supply). Sell-side shelves: 7,783.50 (PDH) → 7,767 (settle pivot) → 7,747.75 (ON low) → 7,725.25 (PDL + 5-day low) → 7,699 (deep shelf).

Catalysts

Durable Goods at 8:30 AM ET - August orders, preview ~-0.3% (Continuum: "signs momentum is slowing in Q3"). Lands before the window - if the whipsaw is still working at 9:45, respect the first settled 5m close.
The bond tape vs dip-buyers - 10-year at 19-year highs pressured futures Thursday evening, then Asia/Europe rallied them back. Yields extending = gravity; yields calming = the 7,826.50 magnet activates. Watch this more than any speaker.
Post-hike digestion - the Sep 16 hike to 3.75-4.00% with one more signaled keeps every data print on a hair trigger; Fed speakers dotted through the week.
PCE inflation Wednesday Sep 30 - the print that matters for the October decision. NOT today - today's 8:30 is Durable Goods only.
Week map: today Durable Goods 8:30 · PCE Wed Sep 30. Thursday was balance (five 7,759 crosses, close on settle); overnight broke it upward through the prior day high. 7,800.75 decides continuation vs failed breakout.

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

Condition9:45 AM-12 PM ET only. SHORT (primary, level-backed): sweep of 7,800.75 / the 7,800 round (or a 7,826.50 extension), then a 5m/15m close back under + FVG. LONG (trend-aligned, secondary): sweep of 7,747.75 (ON low) or 7,725.25 (PDL), then a 5m/15m close back above + FVG. If the 8:30 Durable Goods whipsaw is still working at the window open, wait for the first settled 5m close.

EntryShort: OB/FVG retest after the failed push through 7,800.75 / 7,826.50 · Long: retest of the reclaimed zone after the 7,747.75 / 7,725.25 sweep

StopShort: above the sweep high · Long: below the sweep low

TargetsShort: 7,767 then 7,747.75 (~2:1+) · Long: 7,767 then 7,783.50 (~2:1)

Size / riskMES 1 · <= $50 long / <= $25 short risk (<= 5.8% / 2.9% of ~$867 room, verified Thu 4:33 PM) · min 2:1

Win/loss est.~50% long (trend-aligned with the overnight bid) / ~42% short (countertrend fade after +28 overnight - needs the round number + data to exhaust) at >=2:1 - honest bands, not backtested on this exact frame

Do not place the order if: no full sweep + close-back + FVG · the 8:30 Durable Goods whipsaw is still working into the window · outside 9:45-12 · chasing mid-range 7,783-7,800 with no pullback · longs invalid on a 5m close below 7,725.25 · shorts invalid on a 5m close above 7,826.50 · fresh bond/oil headline · two losses or -$100 today.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

~$867 above the drawdown floor (equity $49,182.60 verified Thursday 4:33 PM; Thursday's trade +$78.10 net, journaled) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM after Kilo's 7:04 AM request for updates; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.