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Read of the day

Friday answered the chop with a run at the round: swept the 7,800.75 overnight high at 12:02, held above it for 18 minutes, and ramped into the close to print 7,814.75 at 3:50 PM, settling 7,803.75. Sunday's reopen sold a third of it back: gapped down to 7,790.50, pushed two legs lower to 7,757.00 by 6:10 AM, now ~7,769 mid-overnight-range. The driver mix: a hiking Fed (Sep 16, +25bp to 3.75-4.00%, unanimous) walking into a hot-PCE week (Cleveland Fed nowcast core +0.27% m/m, 3.40% y/y, Wednesday 8:30), weekend reports of a stopgap funding deal ahead of the Sep 30 deadline (wire confirmation still thin), and profit-taking on Friday's late ramp. Posture: lean bear 55% while price holds under the 7,774.75 overnight midpoint - the 7,757.00/7,752.75 shelf (ON low + Friday low) is the line: lose it and 7,725.25 (5-day low) opens up; hold it and the gap-fill path runs 7,792.50 (ON high) to 7,803.75 (settle). Buy-side pools: 7,792.50, 7,803.75, 7,814.75, 7,826.50. Sell-side: 7,757, 7,752.75, 7,725.25, 7,699. Decider: PCE Wednesday 8:30 - with NFP Friday (+100k consensus) if the funding deal holds. Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only.

Liquidity map

Live chart - zoom & hover

Tape setup

• MES (Dec) ~7,769 after the gap-down reopen: Friday high 7,814.75 (3:50 PM ramp), low 7,752.75, settle 7,803.75. Overnight: high 7,792.50 (first reopen bar), low 7,757.00 (6:10 AM). Last week: Monday's trend day, Tuesday's 5-day high 7,848.50, Wednesday's breakdown, Thursday's pivot chop, Friday's reclaim of the round - Sunday night handed a third of it back.
• The fuel: bond selloff vs dip-buyers - the 10-year at 19-year highs pressured futures Thursday evening, then Asia and Europe bought it back. August Durable Goods at 8:30 decides which side owns the open.
• Buy-side pools: 7,792.50 (ON high) → 7,803.75 (Fri settle / gap fill) → 7,814.75 (PDH) → 7,826.50 (Wed high). Sell-side shelves: 7,757.00 (ON low) → 7,752.75 (PDL) → 7,725.25 (5-day low) → 7,699 (deep shelf).

Catalysts

• Durable Goods at 8:30 AM ET - August orders, preview ~-0.3% (Continuum: "signs momentum is slowing in Q3"). Lands before the window - if the whipsaw is still working at 9:45, respect the first settled 5m close.
• The gap vs the shelf - gap-down Mondays resolve one of two ways: the 7,757-7,752.75 shelf holds and the gap-fill trade to 7,803.75 is on, or the shelf breaks and sellers press 7,725.25. With PCE Wednesday and a Fed that just hiked, rallies into the gap are sells until proven otherwise. The 9:30 cash open picks the side.
• Post-hike digestion - the Sep 16 hike to 3.75-4.00% with one more signaled keeps every data print on a hair trigger; Fed speakers dotted through the week.
• PCE inflation Wednesday Sep 30 - the print that matters for the October decision. NOT today - today's 8:30 is Durable Goods only.
• Week map: PCE Wed 8:30 (core nowcast +0.27% m/m, 3.40% y/y - hot) · ISM Thu · NFP Fri (+100k, 4.1%) · funding deadline Wed night (stopgap deal reported, unconfirmed by wires) · Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% Sep 16. Today is the positioning day before the data stack.

Guardrails

~$867 above the drawdown floor (equity $49,182.60 verified Thursday 4:33 PM; Thursday's trade +$78.10 net, journaled) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Journal - Anthony

What's new

• Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM after Kilo's 7:04 AM request for updates; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
• Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
• Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
• Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
• Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
• Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
• Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
• Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
• Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

• MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
• 1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
• Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
• Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
• Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
• Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
• No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
• Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.