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Read of the day

Tuesday stayed on the shelf: the low printed 7,712.25 and price settled ~7,732 - Project K's long time-exited -$65 at noon while Project X's short hit target for +$376.75 (X now leads by $614.30). Overnight tested the shelf again: sellers pushed from the 7,756.50 ON high (~4 AM) down to 7,719.75 by 7:00 AM, the 7:15-7:20 retest held, and price is back at the ~7,732 settle pivot. That is four defenses of 7,710-7,720 in five sessions (Thu 7,710.00, Mon 7,726.00, Tue 7,712.25, ON 7,719.75). The backdrop is the trade: 10-year ~5.22% after Tuesday's 5.30% (highest since 2007), 30-year 5.55% off a 24-year high; Williams saying there is "no immediate urgency" to raise cooled the move. Today is quarter-end AND the Fed's preferred inflation print: Aug PCE at 8:30 (core f/c 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% prior, 3.3% YoY) with final Q2 GDP (f/c 1.5%). A hot core PCE hands the hawks evidence for an October HIKE; a cool one undercuts them. Posture: lean bull 50% - the shelf keeps getting bought, but this is a coin-flip lean that the 8:30 print decides. React, do not anticipate. Chicago PMI 9:45 prints exactly at the window open. Buy-side pools: 7,756.50 (ON high), 7,767.75 (PDH), 7,803.25 (Mon high), 7,814.75 (5-day high). Sell-side shelves: 7,719.75 (ON low), 7,712.25 (PDL), 7,710.00 (5-day low). Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only.

Liquidity map

Live chart - zoom & hover

Tape setup

• MES (Dec) ~7,732 pre-bell: Tuesday high 7,767.75, low 7,712.25, settle ~7,732. Overnight: high 7,756.50 (~4 AM), low 7,719.75 (7 AM, held on retest). The week ladder: Friday's 7,814.75 is the 5-day high; the 5-day low is 7,710.00 (Thursday).
• The fuel: four defenses of the 7,710-7,720 shelf in five sessions vs a bond market flirting with an October HIKE - 10-year ~5.22% after Tuesday's 5.30% (highest since 2007). Aug PCE 8:30 (core f/c 0.3% MoM, 3.3% YoY) is the evidence both sides need. Quarter-end rebalancing adds noise into the close.
• Buy-side pools: 7,756.50 (ON high) → 7,767.75 (PDH) → 7,803.25 (Mon high) → 7,814.75 (5-day high). Sell-side shelves: 7,719.75 (ON low) → 7,712.25 (PDL) → 7,710.00 (5-day low).

Catalysts

• ADP 8:15 AM, Aug PCE + Q2 GDP final 8:30 AM ET - core PCE f/c 0.3% MoM (prev 0.2%), 3.3% YoY; GDP f/c 1.5%. The 8:30 pair prints 15 minutes before the window opens - respect the first settled 5m close after it.
• Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET - prints exactly at the window open (f/c 51.2 vs 47.1). EIA crude 10:30. Speakers: Barkin 1:30 PM, Goolsbee 5:10 PM, Kashkari 6:00 PM. Micron earnings after the close.
• The shelf - 7,710-7,720 has been bought four times in five sessions. While dips hold it on structure, the long side owns the tape; a settled 5m close below 7,710 exposes 7,700 and kills the longs.
• Bond selloff vs the shelf - 10-year near multi-year highs; oil bid on the failed ceasefire; gold -4% overnight. The rates trade is the boss while it lasts.
• Case-Shiller at 9:00 AM - minor, lands pre-window.
• Week map: ISM manufacturing Thu 10:00 AM · September jobs report Fri 8:30 AM · Micron earnings after today's close · quarter-end today.

Guardrails

~$898 above the drawdown floor (equity $49,213.20 verified this morning; no overnight trades, account flat) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Journal - Anthony

What's new

• Audit - Wednesday page published 8:00 AM with the PCE-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:55 AM feed, price ~7,732. Wed 8:00 AM ET
• Audit - Stripped an unverified attribution from the old Tue 7:10 AM change-log entry; the log only keeps requests that can be verified. Tue 8:05 AM ET
• Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
• Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
• Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
• Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
• Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
• Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
• Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
• Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
• Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

• MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
• 1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
• Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
• Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
• Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
• Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
• No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
• Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.