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Thursday, September 17, 2026 · updated 8:05 AM ET - post-FOMC · MES1! (December)

BIASTWO-WAY
9:45-12

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% yesterday (12-0, first hike since July 2023) and the dots point to one more by year-end - the market flushed to 7,575.25 then recovered, and overnight the relief bid took over: MES1! is +63.75 from settle at ~7,684, pressing the ON high 7,690.75 right under yesterday's RTH high 7,699.00. That PDH plus round 7,700 is the buy-side pool everyone sees; below, 7,671.25 (London low), 7,656.25, 7,643.50 and 7,617.25 are the sell-side shelves. Jobless claims + Philly Fed 8:30 AM land before the window. Oil is easing (Brent/WTI off >$1, Hormuz transits thinned to 3 ships but Saudi is routing via Oman). Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only. Post-FOMC days trend or reverse hard - trade the sweep, not the middle.

Liquidity map

MES1! ~7,684 at 8:00 AM, pressing ON high 7,690.75 under PDH 7,699.00. Overnight range 7,617.25-7,690.75 (London low 7,671.25). All levels MES1! (December).

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES (Dec) ~7,684 after the post-FOMC recovery: Tuesday RTH high 7,699.00, low 7,575.25 (post-decision flush), settle 7,623.00. Overnight: high 7,690.75, low 7,617.25.
Oil easing: Brent/WTI off more than $1 as supply-disruption fears cool - Saudi suspended Yanbu loading but is offering more crude via Oman; Hormuz transits fell to 3 ships Wednesday. The inflation tail is still live but quieter today.
Buy-side pool: 7,690.75 (ON high) → 7,699.00 (PDH) → 7,700 round → 7,719.75 → 7,750.25. Sell-side shelves: 7,671.25 → 7,656.25 → 7,643.50 → 7,623.00 settle → 7,617.25 → 7,575.25.

Catalysts

Jobless claims + Philly Fed mfg 8:30 AM - first hard data after the hike; a hot claims/Philly mix re-prices the "one more hike" dot before the window even opens.
Post-FOMC digestion - hike to 3.75-4.00% is done (12-0); SEP shows 4.00-4.25% end-2026, flat end-2027. Warsh's "higher for longer" framing drove the flush; the overnight bid says the overhang is out. Existing home sales 10:00 AM is secondary.
Oil: easing at the margin (see Tape setup) - removes some hawkish fuel, but the Hormuz story is not over.
Week: today claims + Philly Fed 8:30, existing home sales 10:00 · Fri industrial production + big monthly OpEx.

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

Condition9:45 AM-12 PM ET only, after the 8:30 claims/Philly print is digested. SHORT: sweep of 7,699-7,701 then a 5m/15m close back under 7,690.75. LONG (dip only): sweep of 7,643.50-7,656.25 then reclaim + FVG.

EntryShort: retest 7,692-7,696 of the broken ON high · Long: FVG/OB retest 7,648-7,653

StopShort: above the sweep high (~7,702.50 if swept at 7,701) · Long: below the sweep low

TargetsShort: 7,671.25 then 7,656.25 (~2.5:1+) · Long: 7,690.75 then 7,699.00 (~3:1)

Size / riskMES 1 · <= $50 risk (<= 6.9% of ~$723 room, last verified Fri) · min 2:1

Win/loss est.~40-50% win at >=2:1 - post-FOMC sweeps of an obvious PDH pool are the higher-quality side; dip-long only if the flush is clean

Do not place the order if: no full sweep + close-back + retest · outside 9:45-12 · mid-range chop between 7,671-7,690 · 8:30 news spike still extending at 9:45 · fresh Fed/oil headline · two losses or -$100 today.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

$723 above the drawdown floor (last verified Friday; equity $49,104.50 Tuesday) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.