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Friday, September 18, 2026 · updated 8:05 AM ET - triple witching · MES1! (December)

BIASLEAN BULL
60%

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Wednesday's 25bp Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% (12-0, first since July 2023) got its relief rally yesterday: S&P cash +1.14% to 7,637.74, Nasdaq +1.69% led by semis (SOX +3.12%), VIX -12.8% to 15.44, 10Y back under 5% at 4.939% after claims beat at 196k. Overnight MES1! kept grinding: ~7,713 at 8 AM, +6 from the 7,707.25 settle, after tagging 7,739.00 - above yesterday's high 7,722.25 - then pulling back into the range. Buy-side pools: 7,739.00 (ON high) and 7,750.25 (week high). Sell-side shelves: 7,696-7,699 (ON low + pivot), 7,680.50, 7,643.50, 7,617.50 (PDL). Today is triple witching (~$6.2T options expiring per Citadel) two days after the hike, with the BOJ wrapping overnight - expect expiry churn, pinning and fake breaks, so the sweep matters more than the break. Industrial Production 9:15 AM is the only data. October hike odds above 50% keep the hawkish ceiling intact. Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only.

Liquidity map

MES1! ~7,713 at 8:00 AM, +6 from Thu settle 7,707.25. Overnight range 7,696.25-7,739.00 - broke yesterday's high 7,722.25 overnight, then pulled back under it. All levels MES1! (December).

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES (Dec) ~7,713 after the relief rally: Thursday session high 7,722.25, low 7,617.50, settle 7,707.25. RTH Thursday: high 7,716.25, low 7,680.50. Overnight: high 7,739.00, low 7,696.25.
Macro tailwind, hawkish ceiling: 10Y 4.939% (under 5%), claims 196k, oil calm (WTI $101.91), gold 4,342 - but October hike odds are >50%, so rallies can stall at obvious pools.
Buy-side pool: 7,722.25 (PDH) → 7,739.00 (ON high) → 7,750.25 (week high). Sell-side shelves: 7,696.25-7,699.00 (ON low + pivot) → 7,680.50 → 7,643.50 → 7,617.50 (PDL) → 7,575.25 (post-FOMC low).

Catalysts

Triple witching today - ~$6.2T of options exposure expires (Citadel estimate) two days after the hike: expect heavy volume, pinning near big strikes, and reversals that look like breaks. Do not trust the first poke through a level.
Industrial Production + Capacity Utilization 9:15 AM - second-tier, but a big surprise moves the October-hike pricing (currently >50%).
BOJ September meeting concludes overnight - yen/rates spillover can hit index futures in the early hours.
Post-Fed digestion continues - hike to 3.75-4.00% done (12-0); dots show one more by year-end. Yesterday's bid was relief, not all-clear.
Week wrap: today IP 9:15 + triple witching · next week: PCE inflation is the print that matters for the October dot.

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

Condition9:45 AM-12 PM ET only, after the 9:15 Industrial Production print is digested. LONG: sweep of 7,696-7,699 (ON low + pivot) then a 5m/15m close back above + FVG. SHORT (fade only): sweep of 7,739.00 ON high then a close back under + FVG.

EntryLong: OB/FVG retest 7,700-7,704 · Short: retest 7,733-7,736 of the broken ON high

StopLong: below the sweep low · Short: above the sweep high

TargetsLong: 7,722.25 then 7,739.00 (~2.5:1+) · Short: 7,722.25 then 7,707.25 (~2:1)

Size / riskMES 1 · <= $50 long / <= $25 short risk (<= 6.9% / 3.5% of ~$723 room, last verified Fri) · min 2:1

Win/loss est.~55% long (continuation while 7,696-7,699 holds) / ~40% short (counter-trend fade into strength) at >=2:1 - opex Fridays produce failed breaks, which is exactly the short's edge

Do not place the order if: no full sweep + close-back + FVG · outside 9:45-12 · mid-range chop between 7,707-7,722 · 9:15 IP spike still extending at 9:45 · opex pinning churn with no displacement · fresh Fed/BOJ headline · two losses or -$100 today.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

$723 above the drawdown floor (last verified Friday; equity $49,104.50 verified Thursday 4:30 PM) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.