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Monday, October 5, 2026 · updated 7:55 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASNEUTRAL
50% BULL

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Friday was a quiet scorecard for the paper tests: Project K recorded no entry (the 10:50 candidate failed the confirmed-swing sweep rule and was voided) and Project X had no signal. Kilo's account took no trades Friday (flat, $49,213.20 at the 3:15 PM read-only pull). The tape: September payrolls printed +29k against about +84k expected (unemployment 4.2%), stocks rallied and MES made its high at 7,810.50 (10:40 AM), then gave back to 7,754.00 (11:25 AM) and settled 7,777.25. Overnight MES opened Sunday near 7,787, topped at 7,793.00 (9:40 PM), and has since held a 7,760.00 to 7,793.00 range; at 7:50 AM it is ~7,779, almost flat to the settle, with S&P futures about -0.2% (Reuters, 6:20 AM ET) as tech eases from record highs. The backdrop: the weak jobs print cut October hike odds (CME FedWatch ~80% hold; a December hike is still largely priced), but the 10-year yield sits at 5.28% near multi-year highs, Brent is hovering around $100 on Gulf disruption headlines, and French fiscal stress is weighing on the euro. The day has one scheduled catalyst inside the window: ISM Services at 10:00 AM ET. Posture: NEUTRAL, 50% bull, low conviction: the data helps rates, the yields and oil hurt, and price is mid-range between the overnight low and the Friday high. React to the settled-bar sequence, do not anticipate it. Buy-side pools: 7,793.00 (ON high), 7,810.50 (PDH / 5-day high). Sell-side: 7,760.00 (ON low), 7,754.00 (PDL), 7,741.25 (Thu high), 7,672.75 (5-day low). Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only, and a sweep plus close-back alone is never a signal: the post-sweep structure and a zone retest must also print.

Paper tests (Sep 21 to Oct 20, frozen rules): Project K $5,417.50 (4 trades, 3-1, gross, no costs). Project X $5,772.20 (7 trades, 5-2, net of modeled costs; two Oct 2 cost corrections to the frozen $3.75/ct, originals kept). The portal has both.

Liquidity map

MES1! ~7,779 at 7:50 AM ET (free feed, delayed ~10-14 min), about +2 vs Friday's 7,777.25 settle. Overnight range 7,760.00 (4:45 AM) to 7,793.00 (Sun 9:40 PM). PDH 7,810.50 and PDL 7,754.00 are both outside the overnight range. ISM Services at 10:00 AM ET lands inside the window. All levels MES1! (December).

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES (Dec) ~7,779 pre-bell: Friday RTH high 7,810.50 (PDH / 5-day high), low 7,754.00 (PDL), settle 7,777.25. Overnight: high 7,793.00 (Sun 9:40 PM), low 7,760.00 (4:45 AM). Wed high 7,782.25; Thu high 7,741.25; 5-day low 7,672.75 (Thu).
The fuel: payrolls +29k with downward revisions cut near-term hike odds and lifted yields lower on Friday, but the 10-year is back at 5.28%, Brent is near $100 (Gulf supply headlines are two-way), and French fiscal worries weigh on Europe. Nasdaq closed at a record Friday; chips are mixed premarket (Intel -4%, Nvidia +0.5%).
Buy-side pools: 7,793.00 (ON high) → 7,810.50 (PDH / 5-day high). Sell-side: 7,760.00 (ON low) → 7,754.00 (PDL) → 7,741.25 (Thu high) → 7,672.75 (5-day low).

Catalysts

ISM Services PMI (Sept) 10:00 AM ET (standard release time) - forecasts run about 54.0 to 55.1 against 55.4 prior. Inside the window, 15 minutes after it opens: read the reaction, not the print, and wait for settled bars.
Fed - September FOMC minutes Wednesday 2:00 PM ET. October hold odds ~80% (CME FedWatch); a December hike is largely priced. Governor Waller speaks at the Istanbul Economic Forum this week.
Rates - 10-year Treasury ~5.28%, near multi-year highs on deficit and energy worries. A yield spike is the main headwind for the Nasdaq-led tape.
Oil / geopolitics - Brent around $100 to $102 after weekend tanker-attack headlines; reports conflict on Hormuz flows (one says above pre-war levels, Iran's statements say still closed). Treat headlines as unconfirmed and two-way.
The shelf - 7,760.00 (ON low) then 7,754.00 (PDL) is the first support under price; a settled 5m close below 7,754.00 puts Friday's low in play. 7,793.00 then 7,810.50 cap the upside.
Week map: ISM today; FOMC minutes Wed 2 PM; jobless claims Thu; UMich sentiment Fri; the Oct 27-28 FOMC.

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

Condition9:45 AM-12 PM ET only, and watch-only until structure confirms. SHORT: sweep of 7,793.00 (ON high) or 7,810.50 (PDH / 5-day high), a 5m close back under, then the post-sweep lower-low then lower-high (the sweep and close-back alone are not a signal), then a retest of the OB/FVG/IFVG. LONG: sweep of 7,760.00 (ON low) or 7,754.00 (PDL), a close back above, then post-sweep higher-high then higher-low, then a retest of the OB/FVG/IFVG. ISM prints at 10:00: nobody trades the print, only the settled-bar sequence. No setup has printed yet.

EntryShort: first touch of the OB/FVG/IFVG edge after the lower-low / lower-high prints · Long: first touch of the zone edge after the higher-high / higher-low prints

StopShort: above the sweep high · Long: below the sweep low

TargetsFixed 2R from the actual entry and stop. Reference pools: short toward 7,777.25 then 7,760.00; long toward 7,793.00 then 7,810.50

Size / riskMES 1 · <= $25 short / <= $50 long risk (2.8% / 5.6% of ~$898 room; equity $49,213.20 flat as of the Friday 3:15 PM read-only pull, no position, no open orders) · min 2:1

Win/loss est.~40-45% short (fading a mixed tape into a data print) / ~45-50% long (ON-low and PDL support, but yields and oil cap conviction) at >=2:1 - honest bands, not backtested on this exact frame; 2:1 breakeven is 33.3%

Frozen Recovery do-not-place conditions: sweep and close-back without the post-sweep structure (LL then LH / HH then HL) and the OB/FVG/IFVG zone retest · outside 9:45-12 · stop beyond the risk cap (10 pts = $50 long, 5 pts = $25 short on 1 MES) · two losses or -$100 today.
Advisory filters for today (added caution, NOT Recovery rules): sweep, structure and retest in a single bar (borderline, as Project K scores it) · entries within 2 minutes of the 10:00 ISM print · chasing mid-range 7,760-7,793 with no pullback · shorts invalid on a settled 5m close above 7,810.50 · longs invalid on a settled 5m close below 7,754.00 · a fresh macro/geopolitics headline.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

~$898 above the drawdown floor (equity $49,213.20 as of the Friday 3:15 PM read-only pull; account flat) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Monday page published 7:55 AM; no setup printed yet. Snapshot: 7:50 AM feed, price ~7,779. Rebuilt the page's API worker after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs were checked identical to the prior ones before switching, and the existing journal entries are intact. Fixed a stale Project X loss figure left in Friday's text (-$189.60 is now -$184.60 per the Oct 2 cost correction). Mon 7:55 AM ET
Audit - Friday page published 8:05 AM with the NFP-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,757. Also repaired the page header (the Thursday publish had left the HTML doctype overwritten and a stale Wednesday date in the header). Fri 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Thursday page published 8:05 AM with the ISM-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,742.25. Thu 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Wednesday page published 8:00 AM with the PCE-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:55 AM feed, price ~7,732. Wed 8:00 AM ET
Audit - Stripped an unverified attribution from the old Tue 7:10 AM change-log entry; the log only keeps requests that can be verified. Tue 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.