Read of the day

Wednesday gave Project X its sixth trade (+$10.00 net, time exit) and Project K its fourth (+$90.00 gross, FVG retest after the 9:45 sweep, noon exit); X leads $5,951.80 to $5,417.50. The tape: Wednesday printed 7,782.25 (new PDH) and 7,705.50 (PDL) and settled ~7,715.50, near the bottom. Overnight rebuilt to a 7,767.50 high at 2 AM, flushed to 7,704.75 at 4 AM (undercut the PDL by 0.75 and closed back above 7,720 within the hour), and is trading ~7,742 at 7:52 AM. That makes 7,704.75 the new 5-day low and the sell-side shelf is now one tight 7,704.75-7,705.50 pool. The backdrop is the bond market: the 10-year touched 5.34% (highest since 2002) after the worst quarter for Treasuries since 1994, and traders now price multiple more Fed hikes by mid-2027; Aug PCE came in softer than expected and only cut October-hike odds to about 38% from about 50%. Oil is back above $100 Brent on no US-Iran deal. First session of Q4, with claims this morning, ISM manufacturing at 10:00 (inside the window) and September jobs Friday. Posture: lean bull 50% - the 4 AM undercut-and-reclaim of the Wednesday low is constructive, but the rates backdrop is hostile, so this is a coin-flip lean and the 10:00 ISM print can break it either way. React, do not anticipate. Buy-side pools: 7,767.50 (ON high), 7,782.25 (PDH), 7,803.25 (Mon high), 7,814.75 (5-day high). Sell-side: 7,705.50 (PDL), 7,704.75 (ON low / 5-day low). Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only.

Liquidity map

Live chart - zoom & hover

Tape setup

• MES (Dec) ~7,742 pre-bell: Wednesday high 7,782.25, low 7,705.50, settle ~7,715.50. Overnight: high 7,767.50 (2 AM), low 7,704.75 (4 AM, reclaimed). The week ladder: Friday's 7,814.75 is the 5-day high; the 5-day low is now 7,704.75 (overnight).
• The fuel: 10-year Treasury ~5.3% (highest since 2002) after the worst quarter since 1994, a global bond selloff (French, UK, Japanese yields at multi-decade highs), Brent back above $100. Softer Aug PCE only trimmed October-hike odds to ~38%. First session of Q4.
• Buy-side pools: 7,767.50 (ON high) → 7,782.25 (PDH) → 7,803.25 (Mon high) → 7,814.75 (5-day high). Sell-side: 7,705.50 (PDL) → 7,704.75 (ON low / 5-day low).

Catalysts

• Initial jobless claims this morning (consensus ~201K vs 197K prior) - lands before the window; read the reaction, not the print.
• ISM manufacturing 10:00 AM ET - consensus 54.8 vs 54.6 prior, prices paid 72.9 vs 71.1. It prints 15 minutes into the window: no entries inside 2 minutes of it, then require the full sweep + close-back + FVG on settled bars.
• Rates / bonds - 10-year ~5.3% at its highest since 2002 after the worst quarter since 1994; traders price more Fed hikes by mid-2027. Aug PCE (softer) cut October-hike odds to ~38% from ~50%. The rates trade is the boss while it lasts.
• Oil - Brent back above $100 on no US-Iran deal. Micron guided up on AI memory demand; Nike is also in the news flow.
• The pool - 7,704.75-7,705.50 (ON low + Wednesday low) held on the 4 AM undercut. A settled 5m close below 7,704.75 kills the longs and exposes 7,700.
• Week map: September jobs report Fri Oct 2 8:30 AM · first session of Q4 today.

Guardrails

~$898 above the drawdown floor (equity $49,213.20 verified this morning; no overnight trades, account flat) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Journal - Anthony

What's new

• Audit - Thursday page published 8:05 AM with the ISM-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,742.25. Thu 8:05 AM ET
• Audit - Wednesday page published 8:00 AM with the PCE-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:55 AM feed, price ~7,732. Wed 8:00 AM ET
• Audit - Stripped an unverified attribution from the old Tue 7:10 AM change-log entry; the log only keeps requests that can be verified. Tue 8:05 AM ET
• Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
• Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
• Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
• Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
• Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
• Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
• Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
• Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
• Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

• MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
• 1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
• Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
• Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
• Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
• Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
• No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
• Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.