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Tuesday, October 13, 2026 · snapshot checked 7:50 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASNEUTRAL
50%

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Neutral, subjective 50%, not a calibrated win rate. Futures are mixed as bank earnings start: JPMorgan missed on EPS ($5.57 vs $5.93 expected), Wells Fargo beat on EPS ($1.87 vs $1.85) but missed on revenue, and Goldman, Citi, J&J and UnitedHealth also report. A global AI and chip selloff weighs on tech. The 10-year yield is about 5.19%, down roughly 5.5 bp, the dollar is near an 18-month high and Fed speakers lean hawkish. Brent is about $105.7. Existing Home Sales are at 10:00 AM, September CPI is Wednesday, PPI and retail sales Thursday. MES overnight swept Monday's low, reclaimed it, ran to 7,864 at 6:05 AM and faded back to about 7,850. Price sits between Monday's RTH low 7,846.25 and the bearish gaps overhead. No breakers, no rule changes.

Frozen Sep 21-Oct 20 tests: K $5,177.50, +$177.50 gross, 5 trades, 3-2. X $5,411.00, +$411.00 net, 13 trades, 7-6; Monday X shorted at 7,860.00 and was stopped for -$231.25 net. Monday K recorded no entry. K is gross, X net of costs, so the totals are not equal-cost.

Liquidity map

MES December 5-minute candles, Monday 6 PM to Tuesday 7:45 AM ET, with Monday high 7,870, overnight high 7,864, overnight low 7,835.75, Monday low 7,846.25 and fair value gaps marked

Own MESZ26 bars, feed about 10 minutes behind. A map, not an entry card. TradingView price alerts verified armed at 8:11 AM ET: three active crossing alerts on MES1! at 7,846.25 (Monday low), 7,864.00 (overnight high) and 7,835.75 (overnight low), each once only. Before this, every alert was stopped. A crossing only means price touched a level; it is not a setup, and the sweep, structure and retest still have to be confirmed.

Live chart - S&P 500 proxy (NOT MES1!)

This is an S&P 500 CFD proxy, not the MES December contract: its price reads roughly 50 points below MES1!. Use it for shape only; every level on this page and the liquidity map above is in MES1! terms. Interactive US500 CFD proxy (not MES1!) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES own levels: Mon RTH high 7,870.00, low 7,846.25, close 7,856.75. Fri RTH high 7,870.75, low 7,826.50. Overnight (6 PM on) high 7,864.00, low 7,835.75. Unfilled bearish gaps above: 7,857.75-7,861.50 and 7,851.75-7,857 (15m), 7,854.50-7,856.25 (1H), 7,873-7,878 (15m/1H). Bullish gap below: 7,843.50-7,847.50 (15m). BUY SIDE = highs above price (7,864, 7,870, 7,870.75); SELL SIDE = lows below price (7,846.25, 7,835.75, 7,826.50). The dated drawdown-room figure and the delayed bars are context, not execution facts.

Catalysts

Bank earnings today: JPMorgan (missed EPS), Wells Fargo (beat EPS, missed revenue), Goldman, Citi, plus J&J and UnitedHealth. 10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales. Treasury market reopens after Columbus Day with the 10-year near 5.19%. Oil: Brent about $105.7. Wednesday: September CPI. Thursday: PPI and retail sales.

Sources and freshness

Snapshot checked 7:50 AM ET; bars about 10 minutes delayed. Three level alerts armed 8:11 AM (crossing only, not setups). K gross, X net after $3.75/ct modeled round-trip costs. Paper rules frozen through Oct 20.

Dow Jones morning briefing · MarketWatch bank earnings · TipRanks futures · FXStreet

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

ConditionConditional only, 9:45 AM-noon ET. Sequence: sweep of a real pool (confirmed 15m/1H swing or session high/low, never a prior-bar high/low, and a gap alone is not a sweep), then wick HH-HL (long) or LL-LH (short), then an OB/FVG/IFVG retest entry, stop beyond the sweep wick, fixed 2R. Sweep and close-back alone never qualify.

Long ideaPool: Monday low / PDL 7,846.25. Needs the sweep, wick HH-HL and an OB/FVG/IFVG retest. Example entry 7,848.

Long stop / target7,842.75 / 7,858.50 (2R)

Long risk1 MES $26.25, inside the $50 long cap (about 2.9% of the dated ~$898 room, context only). Est. win 42-47% / loss 53-58%, untested hypothesis (2R breakeven 33.3%).

Short ideaPool: overnight high 7,864.00. Needs the sweep, wick LL-LH and an OB/FVG/IFVG retest (the bearish gap above is a retest zone, not a sweep). Example entry 7,862.

Short stop / target7,867 / 7,852 (2R)

Short risk1 MES $25, at the $25 short cap (about 2.8% of the dated room). Est. win 40-45% / loss 55-60%, untested.

Deeper longPool: overnight low 7,835.75, same full sequence (sweep, wick HH-HL, OB/FVG/IFVG retest). Example entry 7,838, stop 7,832.50, target 7,849 (2R). Risk 1 MES $27.50 (about 3.1%), est. win 38-42%.

Do not place any setup without the full sequence above. Do not place the long after two 5m closes under 7,843 or on a headline spike with no retest. Do not place the short if price accepts above 7,873. Not before 9:45, not beyond the $50 long / $25 short cap, not after two losses or -$100. No breakers or rule changes. If nothing prints cleanly by noon, no trade.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

Advisory only. Frozen caps $50 long / $25 short, minimum 2R, max two trades/day, stop after two losses or -$100. No entry is active until the conditions above print. Broker/account internals omitted from this shared briefing.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Friday page published 7:55 AM with the Oct 9 bracket card. Snapshot: 7:45 AM feed, price ~7,847. Rebuilt the page API worker from its saved source after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs checked identical before switching. Fri Oct 9 AM ET
Audit - Monday page published 7:55 AM; no setup printed yet. Snapshot: 7:50 AM feed, price ~7,779. Rebuilt the page's API worker after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs were checked identical to the prior ones before switching, and the existing journal entries are intact. Fixed a stale Project X loss figure left in Friday's text (-$189.60 is now -$184.60 per the Oct 2 cost correction). Mon 7:55 AM ET
Audit - Friday page published 8:05 AM with the NFP-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,757. Also repaired the page header (the Thursday publish had left the HTML doctype overwritten and a stale Wednesday date in the header). Fri 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Thursday page published 8:05 AM with the ISM-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,742.25. Thu 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Wednesday page published 8:00 AM with the PCE-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:55 AM feed, price ~7,732. Wed 8:00 AM ET
Audit - Stripped an unverified attribution from the old Tue 7:10 AM change-log entry; the log only keeps requests that can be verified. Tue 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.