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Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · snapshot checked 7:50 AM ET · MES1! (December)
BIASNEUTRAL
50%
MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min
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Read of the day

Neutral, subjective 50%, not a calibrated win rate. September CPI prints at 8:30 AM ET: headline forecast +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y (from 3.4%), core about +0.2% m/m and 2.4-2.5% y/y. A core print of 0.3% or more would be the hawkish surprise. S&P futures are up about 0.1-0.2% and Nasdaq futures are mixed; chips are weak after a sixth straight down day for the semiconductor ETF, and Bank of America fell on $1.2 billion in regulatory penalties. The 10-year yield is about 5.19-5.21%, WTI near $94-95 and Brent near $106 with Middle East shipping risk still in the headlines. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and ASML report this morning; the Fed's 2026 schedule also lists a Beige Book today (release time not confirmed). MES rallied about 40 points from Tuesday's low and is stalled near 7,867 under the overnight high of 7,874.50, above the prior-day high of 7,863.25. No breakers, no rule changes.

Frozen Sep 21-Oct 20 tests: K $5,177.50, +$177.50 gross, 5 trades, 3-2. X $5,752.43, +$752.43 net, 14 trades, 8-6; Tuesday X shorted 8 contracts from 7,846.50 and hit target for +$341.43 net. Tuesday K had no entry (the full sequence never completed before noon) and Recovery had no entry. K is gross, X net of costs, so the totals are not equal-cost.

Liquidity map

MES December 5-minute candles, Tuesday 9:30 AM to Wednesday 7:40 AM ET, with 5-day high 7,887, overnight high 7,874.50, prior-day high 7,863.25, overnight low 7,848.75 and prior-day low 7,834.25 marked
Own MESZ26 bars, feed about 10 minutes behind. A map, not an entry card. No TradingView price alert is active right now: the 7,846.25, 7,835.75 and 7,864.00 alerts have each fired once and have not been re-armed. A crossing only means price touched a level; it is not a setup, and the sweep, structure and retest still have to be confirmed.

Live chart - S&P 500 proxy (NOT MES1!)

This is an S&P 500 CFD proxy, not the MES December contract: its price reads roughly 50 points below MES1!. Use it for shape only; every level on this page and the liquidity map above is in MES1! terms. Interactive US500 CFD proxy (not MES1!) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES own levels: Tue RTH high 7,863.25 (PDH), low 7,834.25 (PDL), close 7,856.00. Overnight (6 PM on) high 7,874.50 (12:30 AM), low 7,848.75 (Tue 8:00 PM). 5-day high 7,887.00 (Mon 1:05 AM), 5-day low 7,826.50 (Fri). A stack of bullish 15m gaps sits between 7,860.50 and 7,872.50, left by the rally. BUY SIDE = highs above price (7,874.50, 7,887); SELL SIDE = lows below price (7,848.75, 7,834.25, 7,826.50). The prior-day high 7,863.25 is a reference level below price, not a long pool. The dated drawdown-room figure and the delayed bars are context, not execution facts.

Catalysts

8:30 AM ET September CPI (headline +0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y forecast; core about +0.2% m/m). Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and ASML earnings this morning. Fed Beige Book listed for today on the Fed schedule (time not confirmed). Thursday 8:30 AM: PPI and retail sales. Oil: WTI near $94-95, Brent near $106. 10-year near 5.2%.

Sources and freshness

Snapshot checked 7:50 AM ET; bars about 10 minutes delayed. No price alert active. K gross, X net after $3.75/ct modeled round-trip costs. Paper rules frozen through Oct 20.

BLS release schedule · Fed Beige Book schedule · CNBC · FXStreet · Samuel & Co

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

ConditionConditional only, 9:45 AM-noon ET. Sequence: sweep of a real pool (confirmed 15m/1H swing or session high/low, never a prior-bar high/low, and a gap alone is not a sweep), then wick HH-HL (long) or LL-LH (short), then an OB/FVG/IFVG retest entry, stop beyond the sweep wick, fixed 2R. Sweep and close-back alone never qualify.
Long ideaPool: overnight low 7,848.75. Needs the sweep, wick HH-HL and an OB/FVG/IFVG retest. Example entry 7,851.
Long stop / target7,845.50 / 7,862 (2R)
Long risk1 MES $27.50, inside the $50 long cap (about 3.1% of the dated ~$898 room, context only). Est. win 38-42% / loss 58-62%, untested hypothesis (2R breakeven 33.3%).
Short ideaPool: overnight high 7,874.50. Needs the sweep, wick LL-LH and an OB/FVG/IFVG retest. Example entry 7,872.50.
Short stop / target7,877.50 / 7,862.50 (2R)
Short risk1 MES $25, at the $25 short cap (about 2.8% of the dated room). Est. win 40-45% / loss 55-60%, untested.
Deeper longPool: prior-day low 7,834.25, same full sequence (sweep, wick HH-HL, OB/FVG/IFVG retest). Example entry 7,836.50, stop 7,831, target 7,847.50 (2R). Risk 1 MES $27.50 (about 3.1%), est. win 38-42%, untested.
Do not place any setup without the full sequence above. Do not place a long if its pool is not swept or on a CPI spike with no retest. Do not place the short if price accepts above 7,887. Not before 9:45, not beyond the $50 long / $25 short cap, not after two losses or -$100. No breakers or rule changes. If nothing prints cleanly by noon, no trade.
Logging as:
Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

Advisory only. Frozen caps $50 long / $25 short, minimum 2R, max two trades/day, stop after two losses or -$100. No entry is active until the conditions above print. Broker/account internals omitted from this shared briefing.

Journal - Kilo

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Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

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Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.