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Thursday, October 8, 2026 · snapshot checked 9:15 AM ET · MES1! (December)
BIASBEARISH LEAN
55%
MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min
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Read of the day

High-risk, headline-driven morning. Futures are lower (Nasdaq 100 -0.56%, S&P 500 -0.41%, Dow -0.81% at 5:36 AM ET). Brent is about $104 (+4%), WTI about $92. NBC reports the US is weighing renewed large-scale Iran operations, Trump said an Iran deal is not something he wants, and Iran attacked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year yield is about 5.33%, near multi-decade highs; September Fed minutes showed officials open to another hike. Overnight MES printed a staircase of lower highs from 7,852 to a 7,802.50 low and bounced into the 7,811-7,819.25 bearish gap. Bearish lean, subjective 55% confidence, not a calibrated trade win rate. Only 55% because price is already under the prior-day low, so chasing shorts is poor and a squeeze is possible. 8:30 AM jobless claims can reset levels. No breakers, no rule changes.

Frozen Sep 21-Oct 20 tests: K $5,177.50, +$177.50 gross, 5 trades, 3-2. X $5,977.25, +$977.25 net, 10 trades, 7-3; yesterday X took a short at 7,819.75 (6 contracts) that was stopped for -$202.50 net, now stored in the ledger. Yesterday K had no entry. K is gross, X net of costs, so the totals are not equal-cost.

Liquidity map

MES December 5-minute candles, Wednesday noon to Thursday 7:40 AM ET, with the prior-day low 7,815.75, overnight low 7,802.50 and bearish gaps marked
Own MESZ26 bars, feed about 10 minutes behind. A map, not an entry card. TV alert readiness unverified; do not assume armed.

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES own levels: Oct 7 RTH high 7,859.50, low 7,815.75 (all-session high 7,880.50), close 7,847. Overnight high 7,858.25, low 7,802.50. Five-day high 7,897.50 (Oct 6); five-day low 7,760.00 (RTH 7,778.25). Unfilled bearish gaps above: 7,811-7,819.25, 7,832-7,840, 7,848-7,849. Bullish gaps below: 7,792-7,804, 7,780.50-7,781. BUY SIDE = highs above price; SELL SIDE = lows below price. The prior-day low has already broken, so 7,802.50 is the sell-side low in play.

Catalysts

8:30 AM ET weekly jobless claims, before the window but able to reset levels. PepsiCo earnings pre-open. Oil, Treasury yields near 5.33% and Iran headlines are the main risk through the session.

Sources and freshness

Snapshot checked 9:15 AM ET; bars about 10 minutes delayed. Alerts unverified. K gross, X net after $3.75/ct modeled round-trip costs. Paper rules frozen through Oct 20.

TipRanks overnight report · WSJ live markets · Investing.com close recap

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

ConditionConditional only, 9:45 AM-noon ET. Qualified sweep/reaction, 5m close-back, then OB/FVG/IFVG confirmation. Sweep and close-back alone never qualify.
Short ideaWick above 7,815.75 / the 7,811-7,819.25 gap, close back inside. Example entry 7,816.
Short stop / target7,820.75 / 7,806.50 (2R)
Short risk1 MES $23.75, inside the $25 short cap. Est. win 40-45% / loss 55-60%, untested hypothesis (2R breakeven 33.3%).
Long ideaSecond sweep of 7,802.50, 5m close back above. Example entry 7,806.
Long stop / target7,800.50 / 7,817 (2R)
Long risk1 MES $27.50, inside the $50 long cap. Est. win 38-42% / loss 58-62%, counter-trend, untested.
Do not place the short without a 5m close back under the level, or if price has already accepted under 7,802.50. Do not place the long without a close back above 7,802.50, after two 5m closes under it, or on a headline spike with no retest. Not before 9:45, not beyond the $50 long / $25 short cap, not after two losses or -$100. No breakers or rule changes. If nothing prints cleanly by noon, no trade.
Logging as:
Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

Advisory only. Frozen caps $50 long / $25 short, minimum 2R, max two trades/day, stop after two losses or -$100. No entry is active until the conditions above print. Broker/account internals omitted from this shared briefing.

Journal - Kilo

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Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

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Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.