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Monday, October 12, 2026 · snapshot checked 7:50 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASNEUTRAL
50%

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Neutral, subjective 50%, not a calibrated win rate. Futures are flat to slightly up after Friday's higher close (S&P +0.6%) as banks begin earnings Tuesday and September CPI is due Wednesday. Today is Columbus Day: stocks are open but the Treasury market is closed, so rates cannot react to weekend headlines until Tuesday. Oil is split between a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire claim (Brent about $103-104.5) and Houthi strikes on Riyadh and Iran rejecting the Hormuz proposal. MES overnight ran to 7,887, 16 points above Friday's high 7,870.75, then faded back under it and sits at 7,864, 4 points above the overnight low 7,860 and Friday's close. Acceptance above the prior-day high failed, but the weekly trend is up. No breakers, no rule changes.

Frozen Sep 21-Oct 20 tests: K $5,177.50, +$177.50 gross, 5 trades, 3-2. X $5,642.25, +$642.25 net, 12 trades, 7-5; Friday X took a long at 7,847.25 and was time-exited at 7,844.50 for -$122.50 net. Friday K recorded no entry. K is gross, X net of costs, so the totals are not equal-cost.

Liquidity map

MES December 5-minute candles, Friday noon to Monday 7:41 AM ET, with prior-day high 7,870.75, overnight high 7,887, overnight low 7,860 and fair value gaps marked

Own MESZ26 bars, feed about 10 minutes behind. A map, not an entry card. TV alert readiness unverified; do not assume armed.

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES own levels: Fri RTH high 7,870.75, low 7,826.50, close 7,861. Overnight high 7,887, low 7,860. Oct 6 high 7,897.50; five-day low 7,783 (Oct 8). Unfilled bearish gaps above: 7,868.50-7,870.25 and 7,873-7,878 (15m), 7,873.25-7,876.25 (1H). Bullish gaps below: 7,851.75-7,852.25, 7,814.50-7,817.25. BUY SIDE = highs above price (7,870.75, 7,887, 7,897.50); SELL SIDE = lows below price (7,860, 7,858, 7,853, 7,842.50-7,843.75, 7,832.75, 7,826.50).

Catalysts

No US data identified for today. Treasury market closed (Columbus Day). Oil, Gulf and Hormuz headlines and the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire claim are the main risk. Tuesday: JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, Wells Fargo earnings. Wednesday: September CPI. Thursday: PPI and retail sales.

Sources and freshness

Snapshot checked 7:50 AM ET; bars about 10 minutes delayed. Alerts unverified. K gross, X net after $3.75/ct modeled round-trip costs. Paper rules frozen through Oct 20.

ThinkMarkets week ahead · CNBC live updates · Benzinga futures · Dow Jones morning briefing

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

ConditionConditional only, 9:45 AM-noon ET. Qualified sweep/reaction, 5m close-back, then OB/FVG/IFVG confirmation. Sweep and close-back alone never qualify.

Long ideaSweep of the 7,860 overnight low / 7,858-7,859.75 Friday lows, 5m close back above. Example entry 7,862.

Long stop / target7,856.75 / 7,872.50 (2R)

Long risk1 MES $26.25, inside the $50 long cap. Est. win 42-47% / loss 53-58%, untested hypothesis (2R breakeven 33.3%).

Short ideaSweep of the 7,870.75 prior-day high or the 7,873-7,878 gap, 5m close back under. Example entry 7,869.

Short stop / target7,874 / 7,859 (2R)

Short risk1 MES $25, at the $25 short cap. Est. win 40-45% / loss 55-60%, untested.

Deeper longSweep of 7,843.75/7,842.50, 5m close back above. Example entry 7,846, stop 7,840.50, target 7,857 (2R). Risk 1 MES $27.50, est. win 38-42%.

Do not place any setup without a 5m close back through the level and OB/FVG/IFVG confirmation. Do not place the long after two 5m closes under 7,858 or on a headline spike with no retest. Do not place the short if price accepts above 7,873-7,878. Not before 9:45, not beyond the $50 long / $25 short cap, not after two losses or -$100. No breakers or rule changes. If nothing prints cleanly by noon, no trade.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

Advisory only. Frozen caps $50 long / $25 short, minimum 2R, max two trades/day, stop after two losses or -$100. No entry is active until the conditions above print. Broker/account internals omitted from this shared briefing.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Friday page published 7:55 AM with the Oct 9 bracket card. Snapshot: 7:45 AM feed, price ~7,847. Rebuilt the page API worker from its saved source after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs checked identical before switching. Fri Oct 9 AM ET
Audit - Monday page published 7:55 AM; no setup printed yet. Snapshot: 7:50 AM feed, price ~7,779. Rebuilt the page's API worker after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs were checked identical to the prior ones before switching, and the existing journal entries are intact. Fixed a stale Project X loss figure left in Friday's text (-$189.60 is now -$184.60 per the Oct 2 cost correction). Mon 7:55 AM ET
Audit - Friday page published 8:05 AM with the NFP-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,757. Also repaired the page header (the Thursday publish had left the HTML doctype overwritten and a stale Wednesday date in the header). Fri 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Thursday page published 8:05 AM with the ISM-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,742.25. Thu 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Wednesday page published 8:00 AM with the PCE-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:55 AM feed, price ~7,732. Wed 8:00 AM ET
Audit - Stripped an unverified attribution from the old Tue 7:10 AM change-log entry; the log only keeps requests that can be verified. Tue 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.