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Thursday, October 15, 2026 · snapshot checked 7:52 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASLEAN BEARISH
55%

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Mildly bearish to neutral, subjective 55%, not a calibrated win rate. A global AI-stock rout is the overnight story: Nasdaq-100 futures were down about 1.2%, Kospi about 7% and the Nikkei about 5%, after Wednesday closed with the S&P 500 down 1.11% and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.88%. September CPI was hot on Wednesday (headline +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y), and CME FedWatch showed a 31.6% chance of a hike on Oct 27-28. Today 8:30 AM ET brings PPI and retail sales (release times from BLS and Census; consensus figures come from a single source, TradingEconomics, and are unverified). Fed speakers: Hammack 4:30 PM, Warsh 11:30 PM tonight. MES is near 7,754, below the 7,770.25 prior settle, after sweeping the prior-day low of 7,741.00 overnight (wick to 7,729.50, then back above). No breakers, no rule changes.

Frozen Sep 21-Oct 20 tests: K $5,177.50, +$177.50 gross, 5 trades, 3-2. X $5,836.89, +$836.89 net, 15 trades, 9-6 (X is lookahead-affected, simulation-only, not live-executable expectancy; X leads K by $659.39 only on that basis). Wednesday X shorted from the opening drive and closed +$68.75 net after a corrected exit; Wednesday K had no entry and Recovery had no entry. K is gross, X net of costs, so the totals are not equal-cost.

Liquidity map

MES December 5-minute candles, Wednesday 6 PM to Thursday 7:35 AM ET, with the overnight high 7,769.75, prior-day low 7,741.00 and overnight low 7,729.50 marked

Own MESZ26 bars, feed about 10 minutes behind; only finalized bars are drawn (through the 7:35 AM bar). A map, not an entry card. No TradingView price alert is active right now: the earlier alerts have each fired once and have not been re-armed. A crossing only means price touched a level; it is not a setup, and the sweep, structure and retest still have to be confirmed.

Live chart - S&P 500 proxy (NOT MES1!)

This is an S&P 500 CFD proxy, not the MES December contract: its price reads roughly 50 points below MES1!. Use it for shape only; every level on this page and the liquidity map above is in MES1! terms. Interactive US500 CFD proxy (not MES1!) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES own levels: Wed RTH high 7,837.75 (PDH), low 7,741.00 (PDL), close 7,771.75; prior settle 7,770.25. Wednesday's session high 7,879.75 printed at 8:25 AM, before the 8:30 CPI release (the release bar only matched it). Overnight (6 PM on) high 7,769.75 (the 6 PM reopen), low 7,729.50 (11:00 PM), which is also the 5-day low. 5-day high 7,887.00 (Mon 1:05 AM). The PDL 7,741.00 was swept overnight. No frozen rule says a swept level is used up, so a fresh, otherwise qualifying sweep of it still counts in the scans; today's two examples (7,769.75 short, 7,729.50 long) are an illustrative selection, not a disqualification of the PDL. BUY SIDE = highs above price (7,769.75, 7,837.75); SELL SIDE = lows below price (7,741.00, 7,729.50). The dated drawdown-room figure and the delayed bars are context, not execution facts.

Catalysts

8:30 AM ET PPI and retail sales (BLS and Census schedules). Overnight AI-stock selloff: Nasdaq-100 futures about -1.2%, Kospi about -7%, Nikkei about -5%. CPI aftermath: 31.6% FedWatch hike odds for Oct 27-28. Fed: Hammack 4:30 PM, Warsh 11:30 PM ET.

Sources and freshness

Snapshot checked 7:52 AM ET; bars about 10 minutes delayed, finalized bars only. No price alert active. K gross, X net after $3.75/ct modeled round-trip costs. Paper rules frozen through Oct 20.

BLS release schedule · Census retail schedule · FXStreet · WSJ · Business Insider premarket

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

ConditionConditional only, 9:45 AM-noon ET. Sequence: sweep of a real pool (confirmed 15m/1H swing or session high/low, never a prior-bar high/low, and a gap alone is not a sweep), then wick HH-HL (long) or LL-LH (short), then an OB/FVG/IFVG retest entry, stop beyond the sweep wick, fixed 2R. Sweep and close-back alone never qualify.

Long ideaPool: overnight low 7,729.50 (session low, also the 5-day low). Needs the sweep below it, wick HH-HL and an OB/FVG/IFVG retest. Example entry 7,731.

Long stop / target7,725.50 / 7,742 (2R)

Long risk1 MES $27.50, inside the $50 long cap (about 3.1% of the dated ~$898 room, context only). Est. win 38-42% / loss 58-62%, untested hypothesis (2R breakeven 33.3%). The stop assumes an example sweep wick near 7,727; a deeper wick moves the stop and the size.

Short ideaPool: overnight high 7,769.75 (session high). Needs the sweep above it, wick LL-LH and an OB/FVG/IFVG retest. Example entry 7,767.

Short stop / target7,772 / 7,757 (2R)

Short riskStop 5 points, 1 MES $25, at the $25 short cap (about 2.8% of the dated room). Est. win 40-45% / loss 55-60%, untested hypothesis.

PDL 7,741.00The PDL 7,741.00 was swept overnight. No frozen rule says a swept level is used up, so a fresh, otherwise qualifying sweep of it still counts in the scans; today's two examples (7,769.75 short, 7,729.50 long) are an illustrative selection, not a disqualification of the PDL. A fresh sweep of it would still need the full sequence and the same risk and win/loss estimate before any call.

Do not place any setup without the full sequence above. Do not place a long if 7,729.50 is not swept or on a PPI/retail-sales spike with no retest. Do not place the short if 7,769.75 is not swept or if price accepts above it. Not before 9:45, not beyond the $50 long / $25 short cap, not after two losses or -$100. No breakers or rule changes. If nothing prints cleanly by noon, no trade.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

Advisory only. Frozen caps $50 long / $25 short, minimum 2R, max two trades/day, stop after two losses or -$100. No entry is active until the conditions above print. Broker/account internals omitted from this shared briefing.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Friday page published 7:55 AM with the Oct 9 bracket card. Snapshot: 7:45 AM feed, price ~7,847. Rebuilt the page API worker from its saved source after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs checked identical before switching. Fri Oct 9 AM ET
Audit - Monday page published 7:55 AM; no setup printed yet. Snapshot: 7:50 AM feed, price ~7,779. Rebuilt the page's API worker after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs were checked identical to the prior ones before switching, and the existing journal entries are intact. Fixed a stale Project X loss figure left in Friday's text (-$189.60 is now -$184.60 per the Oct 2 cost correction). Mon 7:55 AM ET
Audit - Friday page published 8:05 AM with the NFP-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,757. Also repaired the page header (the Thursday publish had left the HTML doctype overwritten and a stale Wednesday date in the header). Fri 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Thursday page published 8:05 AM with the ISM-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,742.25. Thu 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Wednesday page published 8:00 AM with the PCE-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:55 AM feed, price ~7,732. Wed 8:00 AM ET
Audit - Stripped an unverified attribution from the old Tue 7:10 AM change-log entry; the log only keeps requests that can be verified. Tue 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.