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Thursday, September 24, 2026 · updated 8:05 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASLEAN BEAR
55%

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Wednesday broke the balance: the flash PMI miss (first post-hike activity read) sent MES through the opening-range low and PDL in a clean trend-down day (7,826.50 to 7,759.00), settling at the lows. Overnight made it two legs: a flush to 7,710.00 at 5:40 AM - straight through the 7,721.25 shelf, stopping 11 points above the 7,699 deep shelf - then a grinding bounce to ~7,726-7,735. The driver is rates, not data: the 10-year went through 5% overnight on oil-driven inflation fears and a global bond selloff; tech led stocks lower. Posture: lean bear 55% but two-sided - the overnight low already swept and reclaimed the first shelf, so the bounce has room until proven otherwise, and two legs down means shorts are late-in-move. The day's pivot is 7,759 (Wednesday's low + settle): reclaim and hold it and the squeeze can extend to 7,770.75 then 7,779.50 (ON high); reject there and 7,721.25 / 7,710 / 7,699 are the stairs down. Buy-side pools: 7,759-7,771, 7,779.50, 7,810.50. Sell-side: 7,721.25, 7,710.00, 7,699.00, 7,675.00, 7,643.50. Today's decider: jobless claims at 8:30 AM (consensus ~202.5K vs 196K) inside a heavy Fed-speaker week. Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only.

Liquidity map

MES1! ~7,726 at 8:00 AM, -33 vs Wednesday's ~7,759.25 settle, after Wednesday's trend-down close at the lows. Overnight range 7,710.00-7,779.50 - flushed the 7,721.25 shelf at 5:40 AM (11 pts above 7,699), now mid-bounce into the 7,759 pivot. All levels MES1! (December).

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES (Dec) ~7,726 mid-bounce: Wednesday high 7,826.50, low 7,759.00, settle ~7,759.25 (trend-down, closed at the lows). Overnight: high 7,779.50, low 7,710.00 (5:40 AM flush, 11 pts above the 7,699 shelf). Week so far: Monday's 89-pt trend day, Tuesday's inside digestion, Wednesday's breakdown - two legs down from the 7,848.50 high.
The fuel: the 10-year Treasury through 5% overnight - a global bond selloff on oil-driven inflation fears and "economy too hot" talk. Tech led the slide; Trump-Xi summit headlines can hit any time.
Buy-side pools: 7,759.00-7,759.25 (PDL + settle = day pivot) → 7,770.75 (key shelf) → 7,779.50 (ON high) → 7,810.50 → 7,822.50 → 7,826.50 (PDH) → 7,843.25-7,848.50 (supply). Sell-side shelves: 7,721.25 (swept ON) → 7,710.00 (ON low) → 7,699.00 (deep shelf) → 7,675.00 → 7,643.50.

Catalysts

Jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET - consensus ~202.5K (from 196K), plus the Chicago Fed index and Q2 current account at the same time. A hot print feeds the "too hot" rates scare; a big miss flips it to growth fear. It lands before the window - if the whipsaw is still working at 9:45, respect the first 5m close.
The bond selloff is the tape's driver - 10-year through 5% overnight, global bonds under pressure, oil firm. Yields calming = squeeze fuel; yields extending = more pressure. Watch this more than any speaker.
Fed speakers all week - Goolsbee already spoke 6:30 AM; ~10 appearances across the week. Barr's housing-summit talk yesterday was uneventful.
Trump-Xi summit - headline risk both ways, runs through tomorrow.
PCE inflation Friday - the print that matters for the October decision.
Week map: today claims 8:30 + Fed speakers · Fri PCE. Wednesday's tape: the PMI miss broke the range - trend-down close at the lows; overnight added leg two to 7,710 and a bounce. 7,759 decides lower-high vs failed breakdown.

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

Condition9:45 AM-12 PM ET only. SHORT (primary, trend-aligned): sweep of 7,759-7,771 or the 7,779.50 ON high, then a 5m/15m close back under + FVG. LONG (counter-trend, secondary): re-sweep of 7,721.25 or 7,710.00, then a 5m/15m close back above + FVG. If the 8:30 claims whipsaw is still working at the window open, wait for the first settled 5m close.

EntryShort: OB/FVG retest after the failed push into 7,759-7,771 / 7,779.50 · Long: retest of the reclaimed zone after the 7,721.25 / 7,710 sweep

StopShort: above the sweep high · Long: below the sweep low

TargetsShort: 7,710 then 7,699 (~2:1+) · Long: 7,759 then 7,770.75 (~2:1)

Size / riskMES 1 · <= $50 long / <= $25 short risk (<= 6.9% / 3.5% of ~$723 room, verified Wed 4:30 PM) · min 2:1

Win/loss est.~50% short (trend-aligned but two legs down already - late-in-move risk) / ~45% long (counter-trend bounce against a 5% yield backdrop) at >=2:1 - honest bands, not backtested on this exact frame

Do not place the order if: no full sweep + close-back + FVG · the 8:30 claims whipsaw is still working into the window · outside 9:45-12 · shorts chasing below 7,721 with no pullback first · longs invalid on a 5m close below 7,710 · shorts invalid on a 5m close above 7,779.50 · fresh Trump-Xi or oil headline · two losses or -$100 today.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

~$723 above the drawdown floor (equity $49,104.50 verified Wednesday 4:30 PM; no trades Wednesday, room unchanged) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM after Kilo's 7:04 AM request for updates; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.