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Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · updated 7:55 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASLEAN BULL
55%

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Tuesday was digestion: a narrow 26-point inside day (7,822.50-7,848.50) holding Monday's 89-point trend-day run - Trump's UN speech was hawkish on Iran, but his later report of a "very good" three-hour US-Iran meeting kept oil sliding and put the Nasdaq at a second straight record. The big regime fact: we are one week past the Fed's first HIKE (Sep 16, unanimous, to 3.75-4.00%) and the market has taken it as a soft-landing signal - records, chips up six straight days. Overnight: dead balanced - ON range 7,827.25-7,843.25, price ~7,826.50 at 7:50 AM, about -5 vs the 7,831.25 settle, sitting on the ON low. Posture: lean bull 55% but two-sided - acceptance above 7,848.50 opens price discovery; loss of 7,822.50 then 7,810.50 rotates toward 7,770.75. Today's decider: flash PMIs at 9:45 AM (first post-hike activity read; mfg consensus ~53.5 vs 53.9) - exactly our window open, so nothing into the print. Buy-side pools: 7,843.25 (ON high), 7,848.50 (PDH), then the 7,850 round into open air. Sell-side shelves: 7,831.25 (settle), 7,827.25 (ON low), 7,822.50 (PDL), 7,810.50, 7,770.75, 7,758.25 (Monday low), 7,721.25, 7,699.00, 7,675.00, 7,643.50. Ignore any "actual" PMI numbers circulating before 9:45 - a junk site is posting fakes. Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only.

Liquidity map

MES1! ~7,826.50 at 7:50 AM, -5 vs Tuesday's 7,831.25 settle, after Tuesday's 26-pt inside day. Overnight range 7,827.25-7,843.25 - dead balanced at the highs, sitting on the ON low into the 9:45 PMI. All levels MES1! (December).

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES (Dec) ~7,826.50 on the ON low: Tuesday high 7,848.50, low 7,822.50, settle 7,831.25 (a 26-pt inside day). Overnight: high 7,843.25, low 7,827.25. Week so far: Monday's 89-pt trend day (7,758.25-7,847.25), Tuesday's tight digestion at the highs.
The fuel: US-Iran de-escalation hopes (Trump's "very good" 3-hour meeting at the UN) have oil easing, the Nasdaq at a second straight record and chips up six days - one week after the Fed's first hike (Sep 16, to 3.75-4.00%, unanimous), which the market has absorbed as a soft-landing signal.
Buy-side pool: 7,843.25 (ON high) → 7,848.50 (PDH) → 7,850 → open air. Sell-side shelves: 7,831.25 (settle) → 7,827.25 (ON low) → 7,822.50 (PDL) → 7,810.50 → 7,770.75 (key shelf) → 7,758.25 (Monday low) → 7,721.25 → 7,699.00 → 7,675.00 → 7,643.50.

Catalysts

Flash PMIs at 9:45 AM ET - manufacturing consensus ~53.5 (from 53.9), services/composite expected to ease; the FIRST post-hike activity read, so a big miss lands harder than usual. It prints exactly at our window open - nothing into it, wait for the first post-data 5m close.
Fed's Barr speaks 10:05 AM (housing summit, usually low impact); Goolsbee already spoke at 6:30 AM.
US-Iran talks + EIA crude 10:30 AM - the 3-hour UN meeting has oil easing on de-escalation hopes; any breakdown re-inflates crude, and the inventory print adds a swing factor.
US-China summit in focus - Xi's visit runs through Sep 25; tariff headlines can hit any time.
PCE inflation Friday - the print that matters for the October decision.
Week map: today flash PMIs 9:45 + Barr 10:05 + EIA 10:30 · Thu jobless claims · Fri PCE. Tuesday's tape: a 26-pt inside day at the highs = acceptance of Monday's run, not distribution - the range break sets the next leg.

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

Condition9:45 AM-12 PM ET only - and NOTHING into the 9:45 PMI print; wait for the first post-data 5m close. LONG: sweep of 7,827.25 (ON low) or 7,822.50 (PDL) then a 5m/15m close back above + FVG. SHORT (fade only): sweep of 7,848.50 (PDH) then a close back under + FVG.

EntryLong: OB/FVG retest ~7,825-7,829 after the sweep reclaim · Short: retest ~7,843-7,846 after the failed PDH sweep

StopLong: below the sweep low · Short: above the sweep high

TargetsLong: 7,843.25 then 7,848.50 (~2:1+) · Short: 7,831.25 then 7,827.25 (~2:1)

Size / riskMES 1 · <= $50 long / <= $25 short risk (<= 6.9% / 3.5% of ~$723 room, verified Tue 4:30 PM) · min 2:1

Win/loss est.~55% long (buy-the-swept-low inside an accepted uptrend at the range low) / ~45% short (counter-trend fade at range high into ATH price discovery, with PMI headline risk) at >=2:1

Do not place the order if: no full sweep + close-back + FVG · anything into the 9:45 PMI print before the first post-data 5m close · outside 9:45-12 · chasing through 7,850 with no structure above · churn mid-range 7,827-7,843 · shorts invalid on a 5m close above 7,848.50, longs invalid on a 5m close below 7,822.50 · fresh US-Iran or US-China headline · two losses or -$100 today.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

~$723 above the drawdown floor (equity $49,104.50 verified Tuesday 4:30 PM; no trades Tuesday, room unchanged) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM after Kilo's 7:04 AM request for updates; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.