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Friday, October 9, 2026 · snapshot checked 7:45 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASBULLISH LEAN
55%

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Modest bullish lean, subjective 55%, not a calibrated win rate. Futures are firmer after Trump said no Iran strike before the midterms; Brent is about $103.2 and WTI about $90.7. Thursday's OpenAI and chip selloff and a 10-year yield near 5.23% keep risk high. MES is about 7,847 against a 7,816.25 settle, just under the prior-day high 7,850 and overnight high 7,853.50, so upside is limited until those buy-side levels are taken. Canada jobs 8:30, Delta earnings pre-open, UMich sentiment 10:00 AM ET (inside the window). No breakers, no rule changes.

Frozen Sep 21-Oct 20 tests: K $5,177.50, +$177.50 gross, 5 trades, 3-2. X $5,764.75, +$764.75 net, 11 trades, 7-4; yesterday X took a long at 7,834.50 area at 9:50 and was stopped for -$212.50 net, now stored in the ledger. Yesterday K had no entry. K is gross, X net of costs, so the totals are not equal-cost.

Liquidity map

MES December 5-minute candles, Thursday noon to Friday 7:42 AM ET, with prior-day high 7,850, overnight high 7,853.50, overnight low 7,832 and fair value gaps marked

Own MESZ26 bars, feed about 10 minutes behind. A map, not an entry card. TV alert readiness unverified; do not assume armed.

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES own levels: Oct 8 RTH high 7,850, low 7,783, close 7,817.25. Overnight high 7,853.50, low 7,832. Five-day high 7,897.50; five-day low 7,760 (RTH 7,778.25). Unfilled bearish gaps above: 7,859.50-7,862, 7,867.75-7,873.50, 7,886.25-7,888. Bullish gaps below: 7,830.25-7,831.25, 7,814.50-7,817.25; support 7,803-7,811. BUY SIDE = highs above price (7,850, 7,853.50, 7,880.50, 7,897.50); SELL SIDE = lows below price (7,832, 7,817.25, 7,783).

Catalysts

8:30 AM ET Canada jobs. Delta earnings pre-open. 10:00 AM ET UMich sentiment, inside the trading window. Oil, Treasury yields near 5.23% and Iran headlines are the main risk through the session.

Sources and freshness

Snapshot checked 7:45 AM ET; bars about 10 minutes delayed. Alerts unverified. K gross, X net after $3.75/ct modeled round-trip costs. Paper rules frozen through Oct 20.

Bloomberg markets wrap · WSJ live markets · MGH FX analysis

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

ConditionConditional only, 9:45 AM-noon ET. Qualified sweep/reaction, 5m close-back, then OB/FVG/IFVG confirmation. Sweep and close-back alone never qualify.

Long ideaSweep of 7,832 / the 7,830.25-7,831.25 gap, 5m close back above. Example entry 7,834.

Long stop / target7,828.75 / 7,844.50 (2R)

Long risk1 MES $26.25, inside the $50 long cap. Est. win 40-45% / loss 55-60%, untested hypothesis (2R breakeven 33.3%).

Short ideaSweep of 7,853.50 overnight high, 5m close back under. Example entry 7,852.

Short stop / target7,857 / 7,842 (2R)

Short risk1 MES $25, at the $25 short cap. Est. win 38-42% / loss 58-62%, untested.

Deeper longSweep of 7,817.25 gap. Example entry 7,819, stop 7,813.50, target 7,830 (2R). Risk 1 MES $27.50, est. win 38-42%.

Do not place any setup without a 5m close back through the level and OB/FVG/IFVG confirmation. Do not place the long after two 5m closes under 7,832 or on a headline spike with no retest. Do not place the short if price accepts above 7,853.50. Not before 9:45, not beyond the $50 long / $25 short cap, not after two losses or -$100. No breakers or rule changes. If nothing prints cleanly by noon, no trade.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

Advisory only. Frozen caps $50 long / $25 short, minimum 2R, max two trades/day, stop after two losses or -$100. No entry is active until the conditions above print. Broker/account internals omitted from this shared briefing.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Friday page published 7:55 AM with the Oct 9 bracket card. Snapshot: 7:45 AM feed, price ~7,847. Rebuilt the page API worker from its saved source after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs checked identical before switching. Fri Oct 9 AM ET
Audit - Monday page published 7:55 AM; no setup printed yet. Snapshot: 7:50 AM feed, price ~7,779. Rebuilt the page's API worker after a workspace reset; price, bars and journal outputs were checked identical to the prior ones before switching, and the existing journal entries are intact. Fixed a stale Project X loss figure left in Friday's text (-$189.60 is now -$184.60 per the Oct 2 cost correction). Mon 7:55 AM ET
Audit - Friday page published 8:05 AM with the NFP-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,757. Also repaired the page header (the Thursday publish had left the HTML doctype overwritten and a stale Wednesday date in the header). Fri 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Thursday page published 8:05 AM with the ISM-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,742.25. Thu 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Wednesday page published 8:00 AM with the PCE-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:55 AM feed, price ~7,732. Wed 8:00 AM ET
Audit - Stripped an unverified attribution from the old Tue 7:10 AM change-log entry; the log only keeps requests that can be verified. Tue 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.