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Friday, October 2, 2026 · updated 8:05 AM ET · MES1! (December)

BIASNEUTRAL
45% BULL

MES MICRO FUTURES MES1! (December) - free feed, delayed ~10 min

Read of the day

Thursday gave Project X its seventh trade (SHORT 4ct, stopped in the entry bar, -$189.60 net) and Project K no entry: after the 10:00 sweep of the 7,704.75 / 7,705.50 sell-side pool the lows kept resetting (7,672.75 low) and no confirmed higher-high / higher-low ever printed, so nothing was recorded. X leads $5,772.20 to $5,417.50 (corrected Oct 2 4:00 PM from $5,762.20: X stop-exit costs restated to the frozen $3.75/ct; K is gross). The tape: Thursday ranged 7,741.25 (RTH high, new PDH) to 7,672.75 (RTH low, new PDL and 5-day low) and settled near 7,726. Overnight bought steadily from the 7,723.00 Globex open to a 7,765.75 high at 5:15 AM, and MES is ~7,757-7,760 at 7:52 AM: a gap of about +32-39 points over the settle, already 16-24 above PDH and pressing the overnight high. The backdrop is rates: FedWatch now shows a 76% chance the Fed holds in October (29% a week ago) after Williams and another policymaker pushed back on back-to-back hikes, 2-year yields sit near a one-week low, and Brent slipped under $100 on EU stock-release talk with no Middle East resolution. Nike is down 10%. S&P is still on track for about -1% on the week. The day is September NFP at 8:30 AM ET (consensus +84k to +90k, unemployment 4.1%, August was +162k), which prints BEFORE the 9:45 window opens. Posture: NEUTRAL, 45% bull, low conviction. A move that already carries the hold-odds rally can reverse on a hot print (hike odds back up) or extend on a soft one; React, do not anticipate. Buy-side pools: 7,765.75 (ON high), 7,782.25 (Wed high), 7,786.00 (5-day high). Sell-side: 7,741.25 (PDH, now support), 7,726.00 (Thursday settle), 7,723.00 (ON low), 7,672.75 (PDL / 5-day low). Baseline unchanged: no breakers, sweeps/reactions + OB/FVG/IFVG only, and a sweep plus close-back alone is never a signal: the post-sweep structure and a zone retest must also print.

Liquidity map

MES1! ~7,757 at 7:52 AM (Tradovate live), about +31 vs Thursday's 7,726.00 settle. Overnight range 7,723.00 (6 PM open) to 7,765.75 (5:15 AM). PDH 7,741.25 is now underneath price. September NFP at 8:30 AM ET lands before the window opens. All levels MES1! (December).

Live chart - zoom & hover

Interactive MES proxy (US500 CFD - MES1! scale differs) chart (TradingView). CME futures symbols are not embeddable, so this proxy tracks the moves; its price scale sits below MES1! by the December basis. All levels on this page and the liquidity map above are exact MES1! terms.

Tape setup

MES (Dec) ~7,757 pre-bell: Thursday high 7,741.25 (PDH), low 7,672.75 (PDL / 5-day low), settle 7,726.00. Overnight: high 7,765.75 (5:15 AM), low 7,723.00 (6 PM open). 5-day high 7,786.00 (Mon Sep 28); Wed high 7,782.25.
The fuel: October-hike odds collapsed to ~24% (76% hold) after Williams and another policymaker pushed back on back-to-back hikes, 2-year yields near a one-week low, Brent under $100 on EU stock-release talk (no Middle East resolution). Chips and megacaps led overnight; Nike -10% on a weak China/revenue outlook. S&P still ~-1% on the week after yields hit two-decade highs.
Buy-side pools: 7,765.75 (ON high) → 7,782.25 (Wed high) → 7,786.00 (5-day high). Sell-side: 7,741.25 (PDH) → 7,726.00 (Thu settle) → 7,723.00 (ON low) → 7,672.75 (PDL / 5-day low).

Catalysts

September nonfarm payrolls 8:30 AM ET - consensus +84k (Dow Jones) to +90k (FactSet median), unemployment 4.1% for a third month, August was +162k. Prints 75 minutes before the window opens: read the reaction, not the print, and wait for settled bars.
Factory orders (Aug) 10:00 AM ET - minor, inside the window. Dallas Fed Logan speaks later today (time not confirmed).
Rates - Fed funds odds: 76% hold in October (CME FedWatch, up from 29% a week ago). A hot payroll number revives hike odds and can reverse the overnight rally; a soft one helps rates but feeds growth worries.
Oil / geopolitics - Brent slipped under $100 on EU stock-release talk; there are no new updates on a Middle East resolution. Headline risk stays two-way.
The shelf - 7,741.25 (PDH) is the first support under price; 7,723.00-7,726.00 (ON low + Thursday settle) is the next. A settled 5m close below 7,723.00 means the overnight gap is fully given back.
Week map: September jobs report today 8:30 AM ET, then the Oct 27-28 FOMC.

The play - conditional sweep setups, both sides (you place it, you own it)

Condition9:45 AM-12 PM ET only, and watch-only until structure confirms. SHORT: sweep of 7,765.75 (ON high) / 7,782.25 (Wed high) / 7,786.00 (5-day high), a 5m close back under, then the post-sweep lower-low then lower-high (the sweep and close-back alone are not a signal), then a retest of the OB/FVG/IFVG. LONG: sweep of 7,741.25 (PDH) or 7,723.00 (ON low), a close back above, then post-sweep higher-high then higher-low, then a retest of the OB/FVG/IFVG. NFP can spike either side before 9:45: nobody trades the print, only the settled-bar sequence.

EntryShort: first touch of the OB/FVG/IFVG edge after the lower-low / lower-high prints · Long: first touch of the zone edge after the higher-high / higher-low prints

StopShort: above the sweep high · Long: below the sweep low

TargetsFixed 2R from the actual entry and stop. Reference pools: short toward 7,741.25 then 7,726.00; long toward 7,765.75 then 7,782.25

Size / riskMES 1 · <= $25 short / <= $50 long risk (2.8% / 5.6% of ~$898 room; equity $49,213.20 flat, no position, no open orders at 7:52 AM) · min 2:1

Win/loss est.~40-45% short (counter to the gap and the rate relief, fades into a news day) / ~50% long (with the gap, PDH support) at >=2:1 - honest bands, not backtested on this exact frame; 2:1 breakeven is 33.3%

Frozen Recovery do-not-place conditions: sweep and close-back without the post-sweep structure (LL then LH / HH then HL) and the OB/FVG/IFVG zone retest · outside 9:45-12 · stop beyond the risk cap (10 pts = $50 long, 5 pts = $25 short on 1 MES) · two losses or -$100 today.
Advisory filters for today (added caution, NOT Recovery rules): sweep, structure and retest in a single bar (borderline, as Project K scores it) · entries within 2 minutes of the 10:00 factory orders print · chasing mid-range 7,742-7,765 with no pullback · shorts invalid on a settled 5m close above 7,786.00 · longs invalid on a settled 5m close below 7,723.00 · a fresh macro/geopolitics headline.

Logging as:

Tap after the decision - it writes to that person's journal.

Guardrails

~$898 above the drawdown floor (equity $49,213.20 verified this morning; no overnight trades, account flat) · max $50/trade · 1-2 trades/day · stop after two losses · advisory only, no orders are ever placed for you.

Journal - Kilo

Auto-journaled from the account after each session (read-only) plus Kilo's own taps. Click an entry to expand.

Journal - Anthony

Anthony's own took-it/skipped-it taps only. Nothing is pulled from any account of his.

What's new

Audit - Friday page published 8:05 AM with the NFP-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,757. Also repaired the page header (the Thursday publish had left the HTML doctype overwritten and a stale Wednesday date in the header). Fri 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Thursday page published 8:05 AM with the ISM-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:52 AM Tradovate live, price ~7,742.25. Thu 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Wednesday page published 8:00 AM with the PCE-day bracket card. Snapshot: 7:55 AM feed, price ~7,732. Wed 8:00 AM ET
Audit - Stripped an unverified attribution from the old Tue 7:10 AM change-log entry; the log only keeps requests that can be verified. Tue 8:05 AM ET
Audit - Tuesday page published early at 7:10 AM; folded into the usual morning build. Snapshot: 7:05 AM feed, price ~7,842.50. Tue 7:10 AM ET
Audit - Triple-check correction: 7,750.25 was mislabeled "week high" - it is last Friday's (Sep 11) high; this week's high is 7,739.00 (= ON high). Level itself unchanged. Fri 8:20 PM ET
Kilo - "Start using MES1!": every level, the price strip, the chart, and alerts switched from the September contract to MES1! (December). Live Sep-Dec spread verified at 67.00 before translating. Tue 10:40 AM ET
Kilo - Liquidity map cleaned up: targets merged into their levels (Friday high = TP1, range top = TP2), no more overlapping labels, staggered text, stop and settle moved to the side rail. Sun 11:41 PM ET
Anthony - "Change the market to MES": market toggle now reads MES / MNQ (the micros actually traded here) and the page is denominated in MES throughout. Sun 10:31 PM ET
Kilo - Trading Plan rulebook added as a permanent section. Sun 10:13 PM ET
Kilo - Site goes interactive: live price, zoomable chart, took-it/skipped-it journal buttons, ES/NQ toggle. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Automatic trade journaling: executed trades pulled after each session and scored against the rulebook. Sun 10:30 PM ET
Kilo - Separate journals for Kilo and Anthony, both interactive. Sun 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Plan

The settled rulebook. Advisory rules for self-directed trading - not signals, not recommendations to buy or sell.

MES only, 1 contract. No other symbols, no adds.
1-2 trades per day. When they're used, the day is done.
Window: premarket, or after the first 15m candle post-9:30 (from ~9:45 AM ET).
Risk cap is the setup filter: MES stop of 10 pts ($50) or less = legal trade. A wider stop means the setup gets skipped, not sized up. Cap scales with drawdown room.
Shorts only on the full setup (sweep + close back inside + structure shift + FVG fill), $25 risk.
Daily stop: two losses or -$100, whichever comes first.
No MYM or MNQ until MES produces two profitable weeks.
Journal every trade against the setup, win or lose.

HISTORY

Fri Sep 11 - first build. Bias history starts Mon Sep 14; results log against your journal begins after the first week.